Thursday, 21 June 2012

It Hasn't Been a Drill for Quite Some Time.


To the media, and presumably also NSA/GCHQ, its a 'cyber war'. To the techies at their keyboards, its being called Infosec. The latter is perhaps a more descriptive and less emotive term. 

As with most examples of human conflict over the past millennia, its being fought over resources and due to fear. And as with most recent examples of human conflict as instigated by Western developed nations, its another example of a pre-emptive strike. Case in point, the US & Israel have essentially admitted to developing Stuxnet & Flame for the specific purpose of sabotaging Iran's nuclear efforts. 

I could blather on all day about the professional and truly fiendish design of these two viruses, but I have enough to do today. Best just describe their main features. Stuxnet, we know, was changing the spin cycles for centrifuges; clearly the US & Israel feel that Iran's nuclear programme is a genuine threat, and are worried that Iran is that close to developing weapons grade material. Flame appeared to be doing the same thing, but also rather a lot more. The virus itself was only discovered after someone realised it had infected a number of Iranian oil refineries, which hints, along with the rather more modular design, that this tool was being used in multiple areas. 

Three nearly entirely irrelevant images.
Just look...
Presumably industrial espionage here mostly, but I can so easily picture military types having things patiently explained to them by rather paler, skinnier types. After a while, they get the picture, possibly say something like 'so its sort of like kicking the legs from underneath them, but we don't need to use bombs or cut off their supply lines?' Then, after some relatively heavy cognition on the part of the military type, the glowing realisation that this makes warfare cheaper and easier wins over the disappointment of not being able to bomb anything.

...how far we've come.
Onto a different slice of wildly inaccurate future-monging, remember the bitching I did about unmanned drones? I wrote that ages before I posted it and things are still moving forward, basically toward vehicles that can stay aloft for longer, can fly higher and quieter, and carry larger and larger payloads. Thus, we can perhaps assume that this is an area of significant interest for military tech/research companies. Soooo, with the amount of money being poured in, and the effectiveness of these machines, we can perhaps assume that remotely controlled, unmanned vehicles are the future of warfare. 

Lets drift thirty years into the future, by which point these are also used for general surveillance, (you know governments wanna do it) and our thoroughly pissed off 'enemy' nation states have got a whole lot better at this cyber war thing. Incidentally, lets hope countries with booming IT/programming sectors such as India or China are friends with us by then, 'cos they can outcode us already. Anyway, I basically predict that it won't be too long before someone at least figures out how to jam communications going to drones, if not gain some degree of control. Iran already managed to snarfle a drone that went down (lets assume accidentally) in their territory, so you can bet they & other countries are going to have Top Men working on reverse engineering and finding out what they can. We also periodically see news reports that say things like 'blah blah admitted that an unnamed US defence contractor had its servers compromised and lost blah blah documents relating blah unnamed blah technologies'. 

Sure bodes well.




Some crappy sources:

http://spectrum.ieee.org/riskfactor/telecom/security/us-military-system-design-badly-compromised-in-march-cyber-attack [millitary gettin' h4xxd]

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/10/drone-virus-kept-quiet/ [millitary gettin' h4xxd]

http://mythoughtsoninfosec.wordpress.com/ [smidgeon on Stuxnet/Flame at the bottom]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-israel-developed-computer-virus-to-slow-iranian-nuclear-efforts-officials-say/2012/06/19/gJQA6xBPoV_story.html [US & Israel admit to authoring Stuxnet]

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2406087,00.asp [US & Israel admit to authoring Flame]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-18517841 [Same as above two]


EDIT 29/06/12 : http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-18643134

"American researchers took control of a flying drone by hacking into its GPS system"

On the positive side, this means they're aware of the potential issues. As you'd expect and hope.


The 'War on Terror', declared to have begun nearly 10 years ago, is, according to one of its chief proponents, still 'not over'.

Tony Blair was kind enough to speak on Radio 4, claiming that the apparent 'threat' would end only when 'we defeat the ideology'. He even went so far as to claim that it was 'deeply naive' to believe that the US & UK response to 9/11 attacks were to blame for extremist Muslim factions. Evidently Blair is continuing to only listen to MI5 when they agree with him - Stella Rimington, former head of MI5 described the response to 9/11 as 'a huge overreaction' in a Guardian interview.

Instead, we are supposed to believe the Time-magazine rhetoric of 'terrorists hate us because they hate our freedom', spouted time and time again in American news reports, television shows and even children's colouring books*. If political leaders are to be believed, then we are also supposed to believe that 9/11 was an unprovoked attack.

Perhaps though, there are other reasons why the 'War on Terror' is apparently not yet over. Not withstanding that humans have been trying to kill each other since we worked out how, ignoring the CIA financing & training Afghan militant groups from 1979 to 1989 and discarding that tricky difficulty of defining the difference between a solider defending our freedom and a terrorist assaulting it.

Take for instance that little reported week-to-week occurrence in Northwest Pakistan; drone strikes. They've been occurring for the past seven years, and reported strikes have gradually stepped up in intensity until, based on estimates and official reports, for the past four years, an average of 500 people are being killed every year.

It's difficult to imagine how people must feel living in areas where at any time, 25,000 feet above their heads, a 66 foot wingspan drone may be circling, loaded with a 500lb laser guided bomb. I think I'd feel rather terrorised, really.

The CIA do not report any civilian deaths, but the Bureau of Investigative Journalism claim that at least 385 civilians, including over 160 children, have been killed. Pakistan's Interior Minister claims that 'drone missiles cause collateral damage. A few militants are killed, but the majority of victims are innocent citizens'.

Whether you think of this as a campaign of military oppression against the people of various countries, (this doesn't just happen in Pakistan) or as pre-emptive strikes which are required to stop terrorist organisations from gaining enough power to mount another serious attack, it cannot be claimed that 'surgical strikes' really are surgical.

Obama's top counter terrorism adviser, John O. Brennan, is quoted to have said 'there hasn't been a single collateral death because of the exceptional proficiency, precision of the capabilities we’ve been able to develop.' According to Reuters, the second largest death toll for a drone strike took place on July the 12th with 45 'suspected militants' killed in multiple missile strikes.

Returning to Tony Blair's claims, is this really the way to go about defeating 'the ideology'? Of course, on the other hand, if we didn't go around provoking wars, who will buy our guns?


*bit.ly/ovZ3WW

[Sources]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/12/world/asia/12drones.html?_r=2&hp (CIA claims 'a yearlong perfect record')

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/12/us-pakistan-missile-idUSTRE76B0I320110712

http://newsfeed.time.com/2011/09/01/911-coloring-book-sparks-outrage-from-muslim-group/

http://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/gwbush911jointsessionspeech.htm

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2035838/9-11-anniversary-Tony-Blair-says-war-terror-over.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/oct/18/stella-rimington-9-11-mi5

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drone_attacks_in_Pakistan

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Cyclone